Posted To: MBS Commentary

Feels like a lot of losses recently in MBS, doesn't it? The series of moderately lower prices in MBS and an even worse picture for treasuries can certainly combine to deliver a bit of that bearish feeling (bond bear, not economy bear). But what's the net effect after today's close? 4.5's down 6 ticks, but to what price? 100-27? Man! That price or prices very close to it sure seem to come up a lot recently. And "recently" can stretch back as far as summer 2009 when that band of prices just under 101-00 capped every last day of that season. Then those prices were supportive as we moved into the Fall and Winter. WAS resistance, THEN support… Sounds like an inflection point… And that would make sense heading into an exceedingly important guidance-giver like NFP, but…(read more)

FHA 90 Day Flip Rule is Waived for Idaho Buyers, Sellers, Investors
The last few years in the mortgage industry has been interesting to say the least. With FHA  Doing away with the 90 day flip rule this will open up the market for investors and buyers to purchase properties and help eliminate some of the [...]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates held steady yesterday near what might turn out to be the most aggressive levels of 2010. Mortgage backed securities prices did not move too high or too low without quickly correcting, not much progress was made in any direction yesterday or for the last few weeks for that matter . Early this morning, the Mortgage Bankers Association released their weekly Mortgage Applications Index. The MBA survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase in home buying interest, a positive for the housing industry and economy as a whole. More home purchases can lead to more…(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Not only are MBS FIGHTING back against a much-worse-off treasury market, but they are certainly winning. A byproduct and opponent in and of itself is the chopatility we've seen so far today. At this moment, MBS are trending toward their lower levels of the day and a moderate amount of reprice risk can be assumed. But if you didn't see a reprice after the 12:30 lows, we're only just in line with the early morning lows now, so for those lenders, reprices might not be justified unless we see increased losses. For a bit more color this afternoon, we'll turn it over to the MBS Ninja, but not before Isaac Newton has a chance to introduce him/refresh memories.. Newton said "if I've been able to see further then others it's because I've stood on the shoulders of giants"…(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Here we are nearing the 3pm marking and treasuries are backing up yet again in the long end while MBS flex their "tightening muscles." Or in english: 10yr tsy's are 16 ticks lower in price and up over 5 basis points in yield. 2 and 3yr tsy's, however, are unchanged to only slightly higher in yield. But even as treasuries are getting crushed (at least in the long end), MBS are holding their ground remarkably well, indicating that spreads of MBS yields to Tsy yields are "tightening." Fannie 4.5's are only down 2 ticks at the moment at 100-30. Despite that strength, there is the whole matter of that "whipsaw volatility." The moves are fairly abrupt and fairly frequent, but keep in mind this is occurring within a 6 tick range at worst, and averaging a 4…(read more)

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The ADP Employment Report was released this morning. 22,000 jobs were lost in Janaury 2010. This was slightly better than the expected print of 30,000 job cuts but not far from consensus. From the release … Nonfarm private employment decreased 22,000 from December 2009 to January 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from November to December 2009 was revised by 23,000, from a decline of 84,000 to a decline of 61,000. The January employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008." January’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 38,000, the second consecutive monthly increase. However, this employment…(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The prevailing theme is unchanged in the interest rate market today. Choppy range bound price action with trading strategy focused on selling into strength and buying on dips. Earlier in the day, that "buy on dips" theory was tested as 10s approached 3.68%, however the supportive confines of the range held strong and rates bounced lower. The 3.375% coupon bearing 10 year Treasury note is -0-08 at 97-19 yielding 3.67%. Still poking and prodding at supportive pivot points… When we zoom in on 10s, we can see positive progress has been made since early morning rate highs were hit. This is apparent via lower yield lows and lower yield highs aka a downward trend channel. 3.67% is blocking progress at the moment though… In that regard, perhaps the stock lever will give 10s the boost…(read more)

Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report

Anticipating the future impact of a current decision is an art and skill. Wayne Gretzky said it best: “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” Owning and operating a mortgage bank is no difference. To be highly successful in a fast moving and changing environment, one must anticipate the impact of current regulatory, investor and interest rate changes. How will these changes impact how we do business in the future? What steps today should we take in anticipation of the results we expect from these changes? In November, MND alerted the mortgage masses that the GSEs were strictly enforcing lender repurchase agreements. Over the weekend, an article in the Wall Street Journal drew more attention to the issue. The essence…(read more)

Posted To: Voice of Housing

I have had about all I can stand with the negative press related to Reverse Lending. The fact is we baby boomers are not only continuing to age but we’re living longer. The uncertainty of social security and the rising costs health care weigh heavily on our minds. For those of us with limited income, yet still independent and don’t want to ask our children for help, the reverse mortgage is a perfect solution. How are we expected to care for ourselves if the best invention for financial security is taken away? I have parents in their mid-eighties who, fortunately are in good health and very independent. But when they were facing escalating property taxes, repairs to their home, and annual increases to their supplemental health care coverage, I began to see a change in them that concerned…(read more)

Posted To: Pipeline Press

OK, for anyone who deals with appraisals in any form, HERE is a great video on YouTube. One of the better lines is, "Wells Fargo and BofA getting appraisals done by appraisal companies they own - It's like Michael Jackson running a freaking boys camp! My E&O is going to go through the roof!" Definitely worth 2-3 minutes. Despite the fun poked at the appraisal process in that video, many lenders are still searching for help for the hurdles that HVCC has thrown up in their process. I am often asked about appraisal "soup to nuts" solutions. If you are interested, or want to see how one company is managing appraisal requirements for Fannie, Freddie, and FHA, you should take a look at ValuFinders. The firm has been around for many years, and has primarily focused on being…(read more)